The Super Bowl is Sunday, February 12, 2023. Referred to as “Black Sunday” by sportsbooks, fans are ready for top betting action. Questions include which team covers the spread. Do Overs outperform Unders? Do favorites outperform underdogs?
Because the best Super Bowl betting strategy combines skill and historical data, we will explore Super Bowl trends. With past scores, ATS, and OVER/UNDER results, use these tips to place online bets for the Super Bowl.
Bet Types for the Super Bowl
As a sports bettor, it helps to learn the various bets, odds, wagers, and promotions before the big game:
Moneyline
A bet on an outright winner. Example: Bills (-125), Buccaneers (+135) means if you bet $125 on the favorite, you win $100 in, bet on the underdog, and win $135.
Point Spreads
A bet on how many points teams win/lose. Example: Bills -2.5, Buccaneers +2.5. The Bulls/favorites over the spread by winning three or more points, but the Buccaneers/underdogs win by losing no less than 2 points or beating the Bulls.
Over/Under
A bet on the final score not being over/under a stated amount. Example: Oddsmaker sets totals at 55.5 lower/under or 56 higher/over. You can bet 54 or lower/under or 56 higher/over. If the score is 55, it is a PUSH, and you get a refund.
Parlay
As a betting ticket, parlays are different bets on one ticket and can include spreads, props, and money lines.
Odds
Odds are the chance of a team winning. Example: -110 means you have to bet $110 to win $100. +120 means if you bet $100 and win, you get an extra $110.
Promos
For better winnings, look for bet refunds/rebates, insurance, odds boosts, crossovers, contests, and special wagers.
Super Bowl Betting History
The first Super Bowl (1967) included spreads, money lines, and totals. Live betting and props are newcomers, while money line odds on favorites have bigger winning margins than with dogs, while totals and spreads do not always hit their marks.
Spreads only came into play in the last six games (10.9%). In games X, XXIII, XXX, XXXVIII, XXXIX, and XLIII favorites did not cover.
Of the 55 games, the average margin for victory is 14 points, with double-digit margins 34 times and single digits 21 times. Over/under has the most highs and lows. The first game saw no total bets, while the other 54 over/under tied at 27.
Of the first ten games, the favorite was 8-2 SU. For Games XI and XX, the favorite was 7-3 SU. The next 20 games were 8-2 from XXI and XXX and then 7-3 from XXXI to XL. Favorites were then 30-10 SU with underdogs winning 9 of the last games, albeit the favorite is 3-2 from the past five years.
2019 saw the lowest totals in history (13–3) with 16 points, while the highest came in 1995 (49-26) with 75 total points.
NFL Teams by Division
AFC
● East: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets
● North: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
● South: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars. Tennessee Titans
● West: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Raiders
NFC
● East: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Football Team
● North: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers
● South: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
● West: Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams. San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks
Super Bowl History For Spread And Totals Betting
In the points spread data for recent Super Bowl games below, winning teams always cover their spreads. Hence you can see a pattern.
The Super Bowl number and date are first, followed by the final score, spread total/betting results, AFC/NFC, straight up (SU), and against the spread (ATS).
Super Bowl I–X
● I Packers (-14) 35-10 Chiefs, Favorite SU: 1-0; ATS: 1-0, No total
● II Packers (-13.5) 33-14 Raiders, Favorite SU: 2-0; ATS: 2-0, Over 43 (Over 1-0)
● III Jets (+18) 16-7 Colts, Favorite SU: 2-1; ATS: 2-1, Under 40 (1-1)
● IV Chiefs (+12) 23-7 Vikings, Favorite SU: 2-2; ATS: 2-2, Under 39 (1-2)
● V Colts (-2.5) 16-13 Cowboys, Favorite SU: 3-2; ATS: 3-2, Under 36 (1-3)
● VI Cowboys (-6) 24-3 Dolphins, Favorite SU: 4-2; ATS: 4-2, Under 34 (1-4)
● VII Dolphins (-1) 14-7 Washington, Favorite SU: 5-2; ATS: 5-2, Under 33 (1-5)
● VIII Dolphins (-6.5) 24-7 Vikings, Favorite SU: 6-2; ATS: 6-2, Under 33 (1-6)
● IX Steelers (-3) 16-6 Vikings, Favorite SU: 7-2; ATS: 7-2, Under 33 (1-7)
● X Steelers (-7) 21-17 Cowboys, Favorite SU: 8-2; ATS: 7-3, Over 36 (2-7)
Super Bowl XI – Super Bowl XX
● XI Raiders (-4) 32-14 Vikings, Favorite SU: 9-2; ATS: 8-3, Over 38 (3-7)
● XII Cowboys (-6) 27-10 Broncos, Favorite SU: 10-2; ATS: 9-3, Under 39 (3-8)
● XIII Steelers (-3.5) 35-31 Cowboys, Favorite SU: 11-2; ATS: 10-3, Over 37 (4-8)
● XIV Steelers (-10.5) 31- 19 Rams, Favorite SU: 12-2; ATS: 11-3, Over 36 (5-8)
● XV Raiders (+3) 27-10 Eagles, Favorite SU: 12-3; ATS: 11-4, Under 37.5 (5-9)
● XVI 49ers (-1) 26-21 Bengals, Favorite SU: 13-3; ATS: 12-4, Under 48 (5-10)
● XVII Washington (+3) 27-21 Dolphins, Favorite SU: 13-4; ATS: 12-5, Over 36.5 (6-10)
● XVIII Raiders (+3) 38-9 Washington, Favorite SU: 13-5; ATS: 12-6, Under 48 (6-11)
● XIX 49ers (-3.5) 38-16 Dolphins, Favorite SU: 14-5; ATS: 13-6, Over 53.5 (7-11)
● XX Bears (-10) 46-10 Patriots, Favorite SU: 15-5; ATS: 14-6, Over 37.5 (8-11)
Super Bowl XXI – Super Bowl XXX
● XXI Giants (-9.5) 39-20 Broncos, Favorite SU: 16-5; ATS: 15-6, Over 40 (9-11)
● XXII Washington (+3) 42-10 Broncos, Favorite SU: 16-6; ATS: 15-7, Over 47 (10-11)
● XXIII 49ers (-7) 20-16 Bengals, Favorite SU: 17-6; ATS 15-8, Under 48 (10-12)
● XXIV 49ers (-12) 55-10 Broncos, Favorite SU: 18-6; ATS: 16-8, Over 48 (11-12)
● XXV Giants (+7) 20-19 Bills, Favorite SU: 18-7; ATS 16-9, Under 40.5 (11-13)
● XXVI Washington (-7) 37-24 Bills, Favorite SU: 19-7; ATS 17-9, Total: Over 49 (12-13)
● XXVII Cowboys (-6.5) 52-17 Bills, Favorite SU: 20-7; ATS 18-9, Under 50.5 (12-14)
● XXVIII Cowboys (-10.5) 30-13 Bills, Favorite SU: 21-7; ATS 19-9, Under 50.5 (12-15)
● XXIX 49ers (-18.5) 49-23 Chargers, Favorite SU: 22-7; ATS 20-9, Over 53.5 (13-15)
● XXX Cowboys (-13.5) 27-17 Steeler, Favorite SU: 23-7; ATS 20-10, Under 51 (13-16)
Super Bowl XXXI – Super Bowl XL
● XXXI Packers (-14) 35-21 Patriots, Favorite SU: 24-7; ATS 20-10-1, Over 49 (14-16)
● XXXII Broncos (+11) 31-24 Packers, Favorite SU: 24-8; ATS: 20-11-1, Over 49 (15-16)
● XXXIII Broncos (-7.5) 34-19 Falcons, Favorite SU: 25-8; ATS: 21-11-1, Over 52.5 (16-16)
● XXXIV Rams (-7) 23-16 Titans, Favorite SU: 26-8; ATS: 21-11-2, Under 45 (16-17)
● XXXV Ravens (-3) 33-7 Giants, Favorite SU: 27-8; ATS: 22-11-2, Over 33 (17-17)
● XXXVI Patriots (+14) 20-17 Rams, Favorite SU: 27-9; ATS: 22-12-2, Under 53 (17-18)
● XXXVII Bucc. (+4) 48-21 Raiders, Favorite SU: 27-10; ATS: 22-13-2, Over 44 (18-18)
● XXXVIII Patriots (-7) 32-29 Panth., Favorite SU: 28-10; ATS: 22-14-2, Over 37.5 (19-18)
● XXXIX Patriots (-7) 24-21 Eagles, Favorite SU: 29-10; ATS: 22-15-2, Under 46.5 (19-19)
● XL Steelers (-4) 21-10 Seahawks, Favorite SU: 30-10; ATS: 23-15-2, Under 47 (19-20)
Super Bowl XLI – Super Bowl L
● XLI Colts (-7) 29-17 Bears, Favorite SU: 31-10; ATS: 24-15-2, Under 47 (19-21)
● XLII Giants (+12) 17-14 Patriots, Favorite SU: 31-11; ATS: 24-16-2, Under 55 (19-22)
● XLIII Steelers (-7) 27-23 Cardinals, Favorite SU: 32-11; ATS: 24-17-2, Over 46 (20-22)
● XLIV Saints (+5) 31-17 Colts, Favorite SU: 32-12; ATS: 24-18-2, Under 57 (20-23)
● XLV Packers (-3) 31-25 Steelers, Favorite SU: 33-12; ATS: 25-18-2, Over 45 (21-23)
● XLVI Giants (+2.5) 21-17 Patriots, Favorite SU: 33-13; ATS: 25-19-2, Under 53 (21-24)
● XLVII Ravens (+4.5) 34-31 49ers, Favorite SU: 33-14; ATS: 25-20-2, Over 48 (22-24)
● XLVIII Seah. (+2.5) 43-8 Broncos, Favorite SU: 33-15; ATS: 25-21-2, Over 47.5 (23-24)
● XLIX Patriots (Pick) 28-24 Seahs, Favorite SU: 33-15*; ATS: 25-21-2*, Over 47.5 (24-24)
● 50 Broncos (+5) 24-10 Panthers, Favorite SU: 33-16; ATS: 25-22-2, Under 43.5 (24-25) *There was no favorite in SB XLIX
Super Bowl LI – Super Bowl LV
● LI Patriots (-3) 34-28 Falcons, Favorite SU: 34-16; ATS: 26-22-2, Over 57 (25-25)
● LII Eagles (+4) 41-33 Patriots, Favorite SU: 34-17; ATS: 26-23-2, Over 49 (26-25)
● LIII Patriots (-2.5) 13-3 Rams, Favorite SU: 35-17; ATS: 27-23-2, Under 56 (26-26)
● LIV Chiefs (-1.5) 31-20 49ers, Favorite SU: 36-17; ATS: 28-23-2, Under 53 (26-27)
● LV Buccaneers (+3) 31-9 Chiefs, Favorite SU: 36-18; ATS: 28-24-2, Under 55 (26-28)
Historic Trends
Super Bowls vary, but trends can help your handicapping. Here are some examples.
The first team to score wins
Teams that score first have won 36 out of 55 games (65.45%), and seven of the past ten. Four teams that never played include the Browns, Lions, Texans, and Jaguars.
Underdogs cover the spread
Point spread underdogs have done the best in the past 14 games, covering ten in seven of the past nine games. The biggest underdogs are the San Diego Chargers from 1995. The 49ers vs. Chargers, with a +18.5 spread and a final score of 49-26.
Super Bowl winners cover the spread
Teams hoisting the Trophy usually win. Winners covered spreads in 47 out of 55 games.
Over/Under is a coin-flip
Coin flip tallies are 27-27 Over/Under, with four of the last six below the total.
Wide receivers produce the first touchdown
Players that score a game’s first TD pay out big:
● WRs produced the first TDs 24 times (43.63%), RBs had 16 (29.09%)
● D/STPs and TEs had five (9.09%), QBs had four (7.27%)
● FBs had two (3.63%)
NFL Super Bowl Winners By Year
The Patriots had the most appearances (11), while the Steelers trailed (8). NE covered spreads in seven games.
Underdogs took 25 games, with faves covering spreads 29 times, while there are two PUSHES (exactly on the spread).
Strange Historical Trends
Aside from the obvious historical betting trends, a few trends are standouts with fans.
White jerseys win more
Teams that have white jerseys won 14 of the last 17 games.
Teams with the worst records
Of the last 16 games, teams with the best regular season only won two matches (XLIII and LI).
Tails win coin flips more
Coin tosses came up tails in 29 of the last 55 games in five of the last eight tosses. Despite this, heads won three of the past four times. Since 2014, the coin flip winner lost the game (0-7), for 24-31 overall.
Final Word
With the much-anticipated Super Bowl upon us, historical trends can help you bet on the big game. Explore the odds, point spreads, money lines, and futures. And enjoy fun wagers like the coin toss, team jersey colors, and betting on the underdogs. Only bet in verified and reputable sportsbooks to ensure you receive your winnings without delay!
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